Analysis: Will the War in Gaza Become a Major Threat to the World Economy and Security?
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It is said that the war in Gaza is not a major threat to world peace and international security. According to Al Jazeera's analysis, the threat of the Houthis, a group from Yemen, could be much worse than the current war between Israel and Hamas.
Yemen's Houthis could seriously endanger shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. It is the world's third largest strategic shipping lane for oil shipments after the Straits of Hormuz and Malacca, carrying six million barrels daily, mainly to Europe.
By following this route, the average ship traveling at 16 knots (30km/h) would take nine days less than circumnavigating Africa. It is also cheaper and is estimated to save at least 15% on transportation costs. However, with continuous Houthi attacks, due to Israel's anger at attacking Gaza, shipping has become risky. This can increase insurance rates, hazard compensation for crew members, and other costs.
Initially, oil prices were bound to soar. In a CNBC International report, there is the potential for prices to rise to US$ 250 thousand per barrel.
Then this will definitely be followed by other commodities. Inflation will increase in a number of countries and threaten the emergence of another recession.
So Can the Houthi Attack Be Stopped?
The first step is always diplomacy, but almost no power recognises the Houthis or talks to them, let alone has any sway. The only exception is Iran, which supports the Houthis in principle but it does not control them.
Nobody knows their current relations but if Iran indeed does not want the conflict to escalate, then the Houthis might be acting against its better advice. So even Iran may not be able to do much. This analysis states that it is possible to take the first step through diplomacy. Yet almost no country recognizes the Houthis or talks to them, let alone has any influence.
"The only exception is Iran, which in principle supports the Houthis but does not control them. No one knows their current relationship, but if Iran does not want the conflict to escalate, then the Houthis may act against better advice. So "Even Iran may not be able to do much," the analysis said.
Meanwhile, sanctions will not be successful. Because previously various sanctions imposed on Yemen failed to stop fighting there over the last decade or so.
Danish Ship Drone
It was discovered in a report on Friday, December 15 2023), that the Houthi group was still continuing to attack ships heading to Israel. Most recently, rebels in Yemen targeted a cargo ship identified as the Maersk Gibraltar with a drone as it sailed in the Red Sea.
"The operation targeting the ship was carried out after the ship's crew refused to answer the Yemeni navy's call," the group said, adding that it had prevented several Israeli-bound ships from sailing off Yemen's coast in the past 48 hours.
The Houthis have vowed to block ships heading to Israel through the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait. This was until Israel allowed humanitarian aid into Gaza. The Danish shipping company that owns Maersk Gibraltar said the cargo was headed to Saudi Arabia. This incident is very unfortunate.
"Recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Bab al-Mandab Strait are deeply concerning. The current situation endangers the lives of seafarers and is unsustainable for global trade," said AP Moller-Maersk, as reported by the Reuters news agency.
Earlier Tuesday, a Norwegian-flagged oil tanker was also attacked by missiles in the same sea. The ship, named Strida, caught fire while crossing the sea stretching from East Africa to the Arabian Peninsula off the coast of Yemen.
"Strinda, a Norwegian owned and operated ship, was attacked around midnight local time, on Monday," said United States Central Command or CENTCOM, quoted by Al-Jazeera.
"The ship was attacked by what is thought to be an Anti-Ship Cruise Missile launched from Houthi-controlled Yemeni territory as it passed Bab-el-Mandeb," he added.
A French warship was also shot by drones in the Arabian Sea at the weekend. Last week's British ship, which passed through the Red Sea, was reportedly hit by rocket fire last week. Meanwhile, the Houthis also took another ship Galaxy Leader hostage. The Houthis emphasized that they would not stop until Israel stopped attacks on Gaza.
Besides ships in the Red Sea, the Houthis continued targeting Israel, undeterred by the lack of tangible results. Israel intercepted a number of long-range missiles, some by land-based antimissile defences, others over the Red Sea south of Eilat by Israeli fighter jets. On at least one occasion, Israel’s most modern plane, the F-35 was used.
Fully aware of the coalition brewing, the Houthis want to prevent it from becoming active and functional. Earlier this month, Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, member of the Houthi political bureau, warned Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that if they joined such a coalition, the Houthis would target their oil rigs and storage facilities. The threat is realistic, both countries’ oil infrastructure is well within range of Houthi missiles.
Any major attack on oil facilities on the Arabian Peninsula would be a clear escalation and a global one at that, as it would push oil prices up and raise insurance rates for international tankers loading along the shores of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
It would be both paradoxical and cynical if the conflict with so much suffering and destruction that failed to move the world were to escalate through attacks on neutral ships.
The Conclusion is War in Gaza is not a major threat to world peace and international security. This statement may sound cynical, cold, possibly even ill-informed, but it is true. Except for one party outside Gaza that can make it matter to people’s pockets.
On the security level, despite its intensity, cruelty and the number of civilian victims, the war in Gaza is at best a narrow regional affair with just two parties fighting seriously, mainly in the Gaza Strip.
On an economic level, the war in Gaza itself doesn’t impact the world economy. Brutal bombing, indiscriminate targeting of unarmed citizens and civilian infrastructure, human suffering, misery, displacement, hunger and disease generate international compassion but, even if it gets worse, it is almost certain that fighting would remain contained to Gaza because business would continue as usual elsewhere.
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